This publication reports on the operation and effect of the minimum pricing provisions during the first five years of the provisions being in force. The overarching evaluation questions for the evaluation of MUP were:
- To what extent has implementing MUP in Scotland contributed to reducing alcohol-related health and social harms?
- Are some people and businesses more affected (positively or negatively) than others?
The report concluded that:
To what extent has implementing MUP in Scotland contributed to reducing alcohol-related health and social harms?
- There is strong evidence that MUP reduced deaths directly caused by alcohol consumption (wholly attributable) in Scotland compared to what would have happened in the absence of MUP. The overall reduction was driven by reductions in deaths due to chronic causes, such as alcoholic liver disease. There was some indication of a small increase in deaths from acute causes, such as alcohol intoxication, but there is considerable uncertainty around this finding in part due to the relatively small number of deaths due to acute causes.
- There is strong evidence that MUP reduced wholly attributable hospital admissions due to chronic causes. There is some evidence of an increase in wholly attributable admissions due to acute causes. Overall, it is likely that MUP has reduced wholly attributable hospital admissions in Scotland compared to what would have happened in the absence of MUP.
- There is no consistent evidence that MUP impacted on other alcohol-related health outcomes such as ambulance callouts, emergency department attendances and prescribing of medication for alcohol dependence.
- There is no consistent evidence of either positive or negative impacts on social outcomes, such as alcohol-related crime or illicit drug use, at a population level.
- There is some qualitative evidence of negative health and social consequences at an individual level, particularly for those with alcohol dependence who are financially vulnerable.
Are some people and businesses more affected (positively or negatively) than others?
- The observed reductions in wholly attributable deaths and hospital admissions were greatest among men and those living in the most deprived areas of Scotland.
- There is strong and consistent evidence of a reduction in alcohol consumption following MUP implementation. Total alcohol sales reduced by 3% driven entirely by a reduction in sales through the off-trade (supermarkets and other shops). Those households that purchased the most alcohol prior to MUP also reduced their purchasing the most after implementation.
- MUP impacted on the price of some products more than others, particularly some ciders and spirits. This was reflected in alcohol sales, with the greatest reductions in sales observed among these products.
- Retailers found that loss in sales was generally offset by an increase in price; the impact on profits overall is not clear.
- Overall, there is no consistent evidence that MUP impacted either positively or negatively on the alcoholic drinks industry as a whole.